NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren’t gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).
https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/08/lower-income-earners-wages-have-grown-faster-than-others/
It’s pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.
Not saying there’s no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don’t have to spread disinformation like wages aren’t growing.