Isn’t this what epidemiologists predicted? That it would mutate into a less deadly form but become endemic? It would still require regular boosters, just like the annual flu vaccine.
Note that Smallpox and Polio didn’t mutate like COVID19.
There was much debate on whether or not the so called “Spike Protein” of the COVID19 virus would mutate rapidly enough to keep up with vaccines. If COVID19 mutated slower (like smallpox), then it would have been erradicated. Some supercomputer even went in and calculated all the ways COVID19 could change and decided that the spike-protein was the least-likely to change. So this is our best shot at stopping the virus.
Alas, here we are on… erm… JN.1? After EG.5, after BA.5, after Omicron, after Delta, after Alpha, after the original COVID19. The speed of this thing’s mutation is too quick (even on the so called “Spike Protein” that was supposed to be a difficult to mutate sequence). Which was not the happy future we wanted. Still though, we can make new vaccines as fast as COVID19 mutates. So this isn’t too bad in the great scheme of things. Just keep your shots up to date and we’ll be good moving forward.
As I said earlier: I really, really was hoping for eradication.
Moving forward: this means that as different variants pop up, it will be the job of public health officials to:
Sequence the new mutations.
Predict the dominant mutations.
Order a vaccine against the (future-predicted) mutations.
Tell everyone when the new vaccine is ready and when its been a big enough change that we all need to update the vaccine in our system.
And moving forward, step 2 or step3 are perilous. A bad prediction will cause people to lose trust (and real-life situations, like government shutdowns during said studies, like back in 2014, could cause worse predictions. IE: government mismanagement causes loss of trust, causing more mismanagement causing more loss of trust). I think its more important to realize how many little elves need to do their job in this big chain of predictions for any of this to work out, and to respect the hard work put in.
Even when the work will inevitably fail / mess up one year or two.
A lot of people are in practice stuck at step4 (too distrustful of our public health officials that they refuse to take the updated vaccines). But as a reminder, it can absolutely get worse, and will get worse when they finally make a mistake. Its hard work trying to predict the future, and I’m honestly surprised a mistake hasn’t happened yet. (BA.5 was a perilous vaccine, there was a lot of debate over the prediction. It turned out to be correct, but we aren’t going to be so lucky moving forward).
I’m no epidemiologist but I was hoping for eradication of the virus personally. But regular vaccines with my yearly flu shot isn’t bad at all, a 2nd shot in the other arm and I’m on my way each year.
Note that the yearly flu-vaccine is really against 3x different strains of the flu. Moving forward, we can likely have 2x flu vaccines + 1x COVID19 shot all in one, so you only get one shot and get all the protection you need each year. I don’t know what the progress is on the combined flu/covid shot, but its at least theoretically possible.
But the status quo (just get 2x different shots) really isn’t a big deal.
As someone who got the flu and covid vaccine at the same time, I definitely don’t recommend it
anecdotal, and its worth pointing out that if you had covid or the flu within 3 month previous to getting shots, the shots can cause a slight reaction making you ‘feel sick’, this is likely what most people who say “the flu shot made me sick” are experiencing.
Nothing happened to me, at all. I went to work just 1 hour afterwards (took a long lunch break just in case something happened) but it was a waste. Felt perfectly fine.
Isn’t this what epidemiologists predicted? That it would mutate into a less deadly form but become endemic? It would still require regular boosters, just like the annual flu vaccine.
Becoming endemic doesn’t necessarily mean “no big deal”. Smallpox was endemic. Polio was endemic. Malaria is endemic.
Note the key word ‘was’. Reason is vaccines. The malaria vaccine is only recently available
Note that Smallpox and Polio didn’t mutate like COVID19.
There was much debate on whether or not the so called “Spike Protein” of the COVID19 virus would mutate rapidly enough to keep up with vaccines. If COVID19 mutated slower (like smallpox), then it would have been erradicated. Some supercomputer even went in and calculated all the ways COVID19 could change and decided that the spike-protein was the least-likely to change. So this is our best shot at stopping the virus.
Alas, here we are on… erm… JN.1? After EG.5, after BA.5, after Omicron, after Delta, after Alpha, after the original COVID19. The speed of this thing’s mutation is too quick (even on the so called “Spike Protein” that was supposed to be a difficult to mutate sequence). Which was not the happy future we wanted. Still though, we can make new vaccines as fast as COVID19 mutates. So this isn’t too bad in the great scheme of things. Just keep your shots up to date and we’ll be good moving forward.
As I said earlier: I really, really was hoping for eradication.
Moving forward: this means that as different variants pop up, it will be the job of public health officials to:
And moving forward, step 2 or step3 are perilous. A bad prediction will cause people to lose trust (and real-life situations, like government shutdowns during said studies, like back in 2014, could cause worse predictions. IE: government mismanagement causes loss of trust, causing more mismanagement causing more loss of trust). I think its more important to realize how many little elves need to do their job in this big chain of predictions for any of this to work out, and to respect the hard work put in.
Even when the work will inevitably fail / mess up one year or two.
A lot of people are in practice stuck at step4 (too distrustful of our public health officials that they refuse to take the updated vaccines). But as a reminder, it can absolutely get worse, and will get worse when they finally make a mistake. Its hard work trying to predict the future, and I’m honestly surprised a mistake hasn’t happened yet. (BA.5 was a perilous vaccine, there was a lot of debate over the prediction. It turned out to be correct, but we aren’t going to be so lucky moving forward).
It was one debated endgame, yes.
I’m no epidemiologist but I was hoping for eradication of the virus personally. But regular vaccines with my yearly flu shot isn’t bad at all, a 2nd shot in the other arm and I’m on my way each year.
Note that the yearly flu-vaccine is really against 3x different strains of the flu. Moving forward, we can likely have 2x flu vaccines + 1x COVID19 shot all in one, so you only get one shot and get all the protection you need each year. I don’t know what the progress is on the combined flu/covid shot, but its at least theoretically possible.
But the status quo (just get 2x different shots) really isn’t a big deal.
If you want a minor update for your infobank, flu vaccines have been quadrivalent for a few years now.
As someone who got the flu and covid vaccine at the same time, I definitely don’t recommend it. It was worse than my actual covid infection.
anecdotal, and its worth pointing out that if you had covid or the flu within 3 month previous to getting shots, the shots can cause a slight reaction making you ‘feel sick’, this is likely what most people who say “the flu shot made me sick” are experiencing.
No kidding it’s anecdotal; I literally shared an anecdote.
I know what an immune response from a vaccine feels like. Doing both at once can definitely cause a stronger immune response than from one alone.
As someone who had a strong immune response from the covid vaccine alone, getting both at once was significantly worse.
For me it felt like I got hit by a truck on my way to the hospital for a severe flu the entire day after I got the vaccines.
I got both at the same time last October.
Nothing happened to me, at all. I went to work just 1 hour afterwards (took a long lunch break just in case something happened) but it was a waste. Felt perfectly fine.
I doubt that will happen. Too many are fine with the flu vaccine but against the covid vaccine
That’s how most diseases trend. Killing your host isn’t super conducive to survival.
I mean, other corona viruses are part of the “common cold” collective.