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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • This is incorrect. The way the Monty Hall problem is formulated means staying at the current door has 1/3 chance of winning, and switching gives you 2/3 chance. Flipping a coin doesn’t change anything. I’m not going to give a long explanation on why this is true since there are plenty other explanations in other comments already.

    This is a common misconception that switching is better because it improves your chances from 1/3 to 1/2, whereas it actually increases to 2/3.