No clue? Somewhere between a few years (assuming some unexpected breakthrough) or many decades? The consensus from experts (of which I am not) seems to be somewhere in the 2030s/40s for AGI. I’m guessing accuracy probably will be more on a topic by topic basis, LLMs might never even get there, or only related to things they’ve been heavily trained on. If predictive text doesn’t do it then I would be betting on whatever Yann LeCun is working on.
Perhaps there is some line between assuming infinite growth and declaring that this technology that is not quite good enough right now will therefore never be good enough?
Blindly assuming no further technological advancements seems equally as foolish to me as assuming perpetual exponential growth. Ironically, our ability to extrapolate from limited information is a huge part of human intelligence that AI hasn’t solved yet.
GPT-2 came out a little more than 5 years ago, it answered 0% of questions accurately and couldn’t string a sentence together.
GPT-3 came out a little less than 4 years ago and was kind of a neat party trick, but I’m pretty sure answered ~0% of programming questions correctly.
GPT-4 came out a little less than 2 years ago and can answer 48% of programming questions accurately.
I’m not talking about mortality, or creativity, or good/bad for humanity, but if you don’t see a trajectory here, I don’t know what to tell you.
They offer all sorts of formula samples at the hospital, so I think even that is a stretch…
Is that not the actual plan?
How I expect this to go:
US: “You really shouldn’t do that”
Israel: “Ok, thanks for the consult” *war crime noises*
The lesson heard is probably “more sequels”
Everything I know about Barbados involves limbo competitions in the year 3,000…
Those parasites from Futurama are better…
Very much disagree. It seems you’re suggesting that the fallout from another Trump presidency will lead to better long term results than a second Biden presidency?
What happens to Ukraine after you stick it to the man and support Trump? Nobody is learning the lesson you want them to. You’re supporting a dictatorship through cynicism. You can be mad at more than one group. DNC could be doing more. Biden could be doing more. Normal voters acting like helping a literal traitor back into office is the better alternative could be doing better.
Like it or not (I don’t), we are stuck with the two choices. Helping the guy who literally says he wants to be a dictator is illogical in every context. If you actually care, volunteer in local elections and donate to candidates that support your views, help create a strong next generation of progressive democrat candidates.
You already did that with Hillary, really worked out great for everyone, huh? I do not understand how anyone can consider a second Trump presidency preferable to Biden just not doing as much as they would like.
What exactly do you think Trump would be doing in any way better in this situation?
Being bitter about your choices so letting others make the choice for you is way more spineless.
You know who I bet it was?
Barbara Streisand
“For 30 years, I am very consistent and I am saying something very simple: this conflict is not on the lack of a state of Palestinians, but the existence of a state, the Jewish state,” Netanyahu said, according to a translation on i24NEWS. “Every area that we evacuate we receive terrible terror against us. It happened in South Lebanon, in Gaza, and also in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] which we did it.”
It turns out, when you terrorize people and steal their land for decades they are still angry at you when you('re forced to) let them borrow some of their land back while continuing to terrorize them.
Certainly not the only accomplishment, but I expect between the agency itself and the politicians who pushed for the budget allocations, they would want to advertise the biggest number they can come up with to justify the funding. What I think is that $520 million was the biggest number they could reasonably justify reporting.
I don’t think we (as developed societies) are going to take that risk for some phone batteries…
Not unless it’s profitable, at least…
But the additional money was effectively $8 billion per year ($80 billion over 10 years).
I very much want to force the rich to pay taxes…but I want it to cost less than the taxes they collect to do it.
Hopefully it keeps ramping up in the coming years.
I remember when they pretended to be that. The fact that the board got replaced when it tried to exert its own power proves it was a facade from the beginning. All the PR benefits of “taking safety seriously” with none of those pesky “safety vs profitability” concerns.
You mean the military with access to a massive trove of illegal surveillance (aka training data), and billions of dollars in dark money to spend, that is always on the bleeding edge of technological advancement?
That military? Yeah, they’ve definitely been in on this one for a while.
A clown car is famously a very tiny car with more clowns in it than you would expect to be able to fit.
Imagine rolling into work, being shuttled to your desk, and suddenly being shuttled to your bosses office without any warning. (Unless you’re a manager, then please stop imagining that you sick fuck).