Lol. After I wrote that I realized how it came off. Bad grammar.

My science falls more on the mesosphere/stratosphere side from space weather effects (top down rather than bottom up). However, SSW events are fascinating phenomena and have profound impacts on potentially all layers of the atmosphere. I’m currently developing (with lots of help) a high-top forecasting model that extends from the surface to the thermosphere. Forecasting SSW events are something we are hoping to improve with this model having a fully resolved mesosphere. I’ll edit my original post as I was hard on your article. I’ll also DM you my email and we can chat further.

Fair enough. Certainly true on La Niña fostering conditions for SSW events due to the change in planetary wave propagation. I’m not sold on the very, very early development of the polar vortex being a predictor though. That said, if your forecast holds, I’d be interested in revisiting this conversation. I’ve bookmarked your page and will reach out in the spring if you are correct. We can discuss it further.

I don’t disagree with its usefulness as a potential predictor once it is formed. I’ve seen the literature on its impact on NAO and the AO. This is particularly true following sudden stratospheric warming events and its correlation with cold air outbreaks in the NH. However claiming that it is “weak” is misleading since it hasn’t formed yet. And to my knowledge, the physical mechanism of the interaction between the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric jet has not been determined. We think it is related to wave reflection from planetary wave and gravity waves during a sudden stratospheric warming event. But if we don’t understand the mechanism, forecast or climate models are incapable of predicting them since that physics will not be included in the models. At this point, using the jet stream in the stratosphere (the unformed vortex) as a predictor for the NH winter will not be better than climatology.

Check out this link to see what the actual polar vortex looks like:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-60.71,59.02,169

This shows wind speed in the middle stratosphere. Since it is still winter in the southern hemisphere, you’ll find the polar vortex there. It is the very strong circular vortex surrounding the South Pole. The northern hemisphere doesn’t have one yet because it is still summer here. Hence my argument against claiming it is “weak” in the article. It simply doesn’t exist yet.

I work in the middle atmosphere and several things in this article I disagree with. First off, the polar vortex is a stratospheric and mesospheric jet stream that exists in the winter time. There is no polar vortex in the stratosphere during the summer. Let me repeat that. There is no polar vortex in the northern hemisphere right now! So how are you using it for predictions? Second, the media stole the term “polar vortex” for the Arctic jet stream that exists in the troposphere. Moreover, while correlations have been made (see Baldwin et al., 2021) on the stratospheric impact on the tropospheric weather, the physics aren’t well understood. Assuming you can make predictions on the northern hemisphere winter based on the polar vortex in the stratosphere (which again, doesn’t exist yet because it is summer) months out is unlikely.

Edit: I edited out the argument that the OP may not reputable since they are a meteorologist in Canada.

Edit2: I’ve edited my original post slightly after discussing this concept with the OP.

This is exactly what the republicans strive for.

This is insanity. Voting sites should be under the control of the federal government and run by nonpartisan commissions. States and especially not some county courthouse should have no control over whether or not a polling site exists. Polling sites should be based on population density regardless of voter turnout and Election Day should be a national holiday where everyone has the opportunity and ability to vote locally. All of this should be written into the constitution. This is pure voter suppression and anyone attempting this should be charged.

I’m a scientist who is contracted through NASA and work at one of the NASA facilities. As an early career scientist, working here is a dream job. I get the opportunity to work with absolute world class scientists everyday. That said, the funding situation is dire at all NASA facilities due to funding cuts. The current saying is “flat is the new up” in terms of funding. That means if NASA maintains its funding, it’s a win. As a result, NASA would rather maintain science and engineering with the limited budget, but at the expense of the facilities themselves. I can attest that it is a stark difference between someplace like the Applied Physics Lab at Hopkins (lots of military contracts) vs Goddard Space Flight Center in terms of the quality of the facilities.

The problem is Congress looks for funding cuts in discretionary funding. Mandatory funding consists of social security, healthcare, and veteran programs. Discretionary funding is everything else, which makes up only roughly 25% of the rest of the budget. Military takes half of the discretionary budget. Democrats nor Republicans dare to touch the military budget despite the fact they fail their audit every single year. This leaves 900 billion for everything else. NASA gets about 4% of that.

Since the tax code is totally fucked up in this country, the richest people pay the least percentage through loopholes and corporations barely pay anything (9% of the total revenue), it’s up to the working class to make up the difference. Since understandably no one wants their taxes raised, in order to reduce spending they look to the “everything else” part of the discretionary budget. And NASA is part of this and is considered expendable. It’s sad to see such an important institution for the U.S. slowly dying. I want to believe the outlook is promising, but I just can’t see the future looking any brighter.

This. The article reads like Millennials are choosing unhealthy lifestyles. In reality, they work two jobs at a desk resulting in no sleep and a lack of exercise. Then after they pay the boomers social security checks that they will never see themselves, are forced to eat shit food because it costs twice as much to eat healthy. And of course the last sentence, that suggests that maybe the mountain of microplastics and other pollutants may have something to do with the rising rates. Yea, no shit.

Is everyone here talking about Steven Van de Velde the child rapist and peadophile? I heard he only served 13 months for repeated raping a child who he encouraged to get the morning after pill. She self harms herself now due to the guilt. Is it that Steven Van de Velde, the child rapist you are talking about?

Ukraine isn’t in the EU.

I think that is a fair point. One possible option would be to withhold any financial assistance to Hungary. As of 2021, they cost the EU 4.2 billion euros (https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/net-contributors-to-eu-budget/).

It is time to develop a way to remove nations who clearly don’t have the EU’s best interest at heart. Hungary is long overdue to be bounced from the EU.

I bought a 97 Ford Taurus off a friend for $800 back in 2008. Her dad thought it was on its last legs at 155k miles so he wanted to sell it. I drove it for four years. It was running fine until someone blasted it out in front of my girlfriend’s house and drove off. At the time it had 206k miles. 50k miles for $800 was certainly one of my best purchases.

I’ve read a couple of Dean’s books and I don’t regret it, but also didn’t find them that good.

Outside a couple of disappointments, everything I’ve read from King has ranged from really good (Salems lot, tommyknockers, etc) to outstanding (the dark tower series, the tailsman).

Ego is a huge human weakness. People struggle hard to admit they are wrong. This is especially true if they are committed to an idea that happens to be wrong. They would rather distort their own reality than admit they were wrong and try to grow from the experience. Once nice thing about being a scientist is we get lots of critical feedback from one another and we learn to admit when we are incorrect. However, even we are not immune. I know of one scientist who ruined their career committing to an idea that was wrong.

While I’m not specifically a climate scientist, I have degrees in atmospheric science, which include a PhD so I understand climate change better than most. The most frustrating part of informing people about this very real threat is how well the propaganda from the fossil fuel companies worked. We have known for 100 years about this and have solid evidence since the satellite era (1979-present). I can explain not only that climate change is real but also it is human caused and I can prove it mathematically on a white board in about 15 minutes to a laymen person (it isn’t hard). But despite the fact they believe in math (I ask them in the beginning just to be sure), they are skeptical of mathematical results. They know more than me, the scientist, because they watched a YouTube video this one time saying that it isn’t real. I’m honestly glad I don’t work in climate science because I can’t imagine how aggravating it can be.

Some good advice I heard once is that you can’t change what happens to you but you can change how you react to it. Bad things will happen but how you react to those things makes such an impact. Reacting positively to negative things happening affects not only your mood, but also how you deal with those things. It takes time to shift to this style of thinking but it will definitely improve your way of life.

We do. Do you not recall all the “thoughts and prayers” after each incident?