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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • Yes of course China covered up COVID, however I believe that this actually probably is M. Pneumoniae as it’s famous for spreading in schools amongst children as well as already resistant to many antibiotics because it has no cell wall.
    My one concern is that this could secretly be a human to human form of avian influenza, but there is absolutely no hiding a disease with a mortality rate on par with Ebola (30-50% or 18-30%- as much as Spanish Flu or the black death) for very long at all. COVID has around a 1% mortality rate and there were people posting videos of people dying in the streets on Chinese social media, if it’s avian flue than there will be mass graves on an unheard of scale.





  • Yeah I’ve done a tiny bit of AI stuff for what I do (biology) and I think it’s very sus they can build such a strong model out of data which costs lots of money. The reason the algos in my field of biology are so strong is because the NCBI has the genomes of everything that’s be sequenced FOR FREE, because obviously you don’t want people patenting genomes and it should all be free for science, etc.

    Which begs the question how the a start up that started out as a non-profit get that much user data and keep costs low? I know you can buy user data and I’m not sure how much it is to buy a bunch of google docs from a data broker, but if you buy from hackers who just data breached or used some illegal crawler you can probably cut that to prices a nonprofit could afford.







  • I should have said the varieties that were specifically bred and engineered as WMDs but you are right that most are very available. For example there is a huge difference between the anthrax that was released in Sverdvolesk and “normal” anthrax. The soviets also tried to weaponize many “exotic” diseases like (allegedly) Marburg and Machupo, which cannot be found just anywhere. I assume that the U.S has at the very least considered creating such awful things with exotic diseases. Hybrids are a big deal too like the old post 9/11 meme of smallpox+ anthrax.


  • You’re right that such weapons could be made again but imho there is no reason to, conventional weapons are more precise, accurate, controllable, and deployable. Chemical and biological weapons are both at the mercy of mother nature and can easily turn on people, like how poison gas can literally just blow back on an army as it did many times in WWI. Nerve agents and things could get into the water supply of both armies, etc.
    Don’t even get me started on biological weapons which can literally evolve out of control in less than a blink of an eye. There is NO REASON to keep such things around or to make them. Politicians can talk about using WMDS as bargaining chips but it’s not really worth it or indeed logical to bargain with billions of lives and possibly even your own.
    It’s honestly very funny to me that so many people are worried about a robot revolution or skynet when we have weapons that could basically do the same thing already. They aren’t intelligent, but diseases are very quick to evolve and adapt to getting as many hosts as quickly as possible, yet we are still keeping such things around for some insane reason.


  • In biology we’ve been using machine learning for a long time now so the AI super hype out there is pretty funny to me. It’s for sure useful with stuff like predicting protein folding and analyzing genes and stuff, but it’s all hyper-specific stuff just like it has its always been. Good for removing tedium for sure as its the reason we can even know the human genome because it would take literally forever to sequence it without modern tech, which we did in the in the 90s and finished in 2003.
    My big hope is that all this hype will get people to invest in proteonomic technology which is 100% a great use case for AI and also the future.