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Cake day: November 10th, 2023

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  • Our pastor did a whole six-week long study of Acts, talking about how we needed to give more so we could fund mission trips and whatnot. I got caught up in it all (he was quite the orator, I’ll give him that) and donated a decent chunk of the money I’d been saving up to get a new iPod.

    My sister went on one of the mission trips and had to pay for literally everything out of her own pocket. Despite the plentiful donations for, allegedly, that express purpose.

    Cherry on the cake was that they soon broke ground on a new youth group building (which we didn’t need), complete with a coffee house (with prices and menu comparable to Starbucks). All I could think of was Jesus getting pissed at the vendors and money changers in the temple and flipping tables over. “‘My house will be called a house of prayer’, but you are making it ‘a den of robbers’.”





  • Yup. There’s no number of scratchers you can buy that gives you a 100% chance of winning. Sure, your chances go up the more you buy, but it never reaches 100%.

    The formula is: 1 - (1-p)^N where p is the chance of winning and N is the number of scratchers you buy. Basically, you have to NOT win for N scratchers, so we multiply (since this is an AND condition, ie: you must lose scratcher A and scratcher B and scratcher C, etc) the chance of not winning (1-p) by itself for the number of scratchers bought. That’s the overall chance of not winning, so we subtract that from 1 to get the chance of winning. You could instead use the chance of winning directly, but the formula is much longer (until you simplify the equation, which would give you the same answer as above) since you’d need to add (in this case we are using OR conditions) the chances of winning 1 scratcher or 2 scratchers or 3 scratchers, etc.

    1 in 30 is a 3.33% chance of winning (a 96.67% chance of not winning, for those still following along). If you buy 30 scratchers, your chance of winning is only 63.83%. For 300, it’s 99.9962%. The chance will never reach 100% because you have a number between 0 and 1 raised to the power of a positive number in the formula. The chance of winning at least 1 of N scratchers can only be 100% if the chance of winning a single scratcher is already 100%, and they don’t sell those.

    However! There are rules dictating the distribution of winning scratchers in a roll. It’s obviously not 1 every 30 exactly, but it’s also not perfectly random (which could lead to long strings of losing scratchers or long strings of winning scratchers). That’s why sometimes you’ll have to wait in line behind someone while they make the gas station attendant open a whole new roll because they want to buy 100 contiguous scratchers and there were only 99 left in the old roll.

    Turns out, humans don’t think true randomness “feels” random. There’s actually a game design trick where you tell the player odds that are lower than reality because the true odds “feel” lower than the reported number. Pokemon did not use this trick, so Hyper Beam (reported accuracy of 90%) feels unfair, since you remember more strongly all the times it missed when you really, really needed it to hit vs. all the times it hit.


  • I think it’s because English isn’t super consistent with the spelling of vowel sounds. Consider also “choose” (rhymes with “lose”) and “chose” (which doesn’t rhyme with either).

    I guess really the vowel sound in loose/lose is basically the same; the difference is whether or not the “s” makes a “s” sound or a “z” sound… It is admittely odd that the presence or absence of an extra “o” would affect the sound of an adjacent constant (especially when we have a perfectly good “z” character available).

    Which reminds me of my pet peeve: when people use “breath” or “cloth” instead of “breathe” or “clothe”.



  • deo@lemmy.dbzer0.comtoMemes@lemmy.mlsErVe aNd pRoFeCt
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    1 year ago

    My mother is a sweet law-abiding citizen, always follows the rules. But cops make her supremely nervous, and she’s terrified of going to jail (even though, like I said, she’s done nothing wrong, but that doesn’t always matter). I’m afraid she’s gonna get pulled over for a broken tail light or something and end up getting hassled because she’s “acting suspicious”.

    I would assume cops get training for dealing with people in stressful situations, but from all the instances of things going downhill so fast for little to no reason, it doesn’t seem like the training is sufficient (or like you suggested, maybe they are taught the wrong things altogether). Their mere presence can make people anxious, and stress alone can cause people to have difficulty processing the situation (not to mention the conflicting orders, the dogs, the yelling, the flashing lights, etc). I know that, for the things I’ve been trained to do, it’s a constant struggle to remember that others don’t know even the basics of my field, and assuming that they do is a recipe for miscommunication. But when i communicate poorly, it doesn’t end with people getting shot.