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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • While she is of Jewish ancestry, she is not religiously observant.

    and then

    While welcoming the dialogue with Sheinbaum, members of the Jewish community do not consider her to be part of their ranks, in part because Sheinbaum herself has rejected any such connection. “Claudia has actively tried to say: ‘This is not me,” Schlosser said. “It must be respected when a person does not want to be identified in one way or another.”

    … and more of that.

    Seems like this article is more preoccupied with her religion, which she clearly states is not a big part of who she is, rather than her policies, which I’d be more interested in hearing about.

    TL;DR: Your usual sensationalized headline.











  • The probability of getting both right the first time is easy: 0.25*0.25 = 0.625 or 6.25%

    The probability of getting exactly one right is: either you get the 1st one right and miss the second, or vice versa. Thats 0.25*0.75 + 0.75*0.25 = 0.5*0.75 = 0.375 or 37.5%, so the probability of getting at least 50% is 0.375 + 0.0625 = 0.4375 or 43.75%, even without retries, so pretty good odds. The probability of missing both is 1 - 0.4375 = 0.5625 (or 0.75*0.75).

    When you retry, there’s two possibilities:

    1. You missed both: now your probability of getting at least one of them right is: (1/3)(1/3) + 2*(1/3)(2/3) =~ 55.55%
    2. You got only one wrong: you just need to guess the other, so it’s 100% for you to get at least one, and 1/3 (33.33%) to get both

    So, including a retry, you either:

    1. Guess them both the first try: 0.0625 or 6.25%
    2. Guess one of them, then guess both: 0.375*(1/3) = 0.125
    3. Guess one of them, then still guess only one: 0.375*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
    4. Guess none first, then guess one: 0.5625*2*(1/3)(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
    5. Guess none first, then guess both: 0.5625*(1/3)*(1/3) = 0.0625 or 6.25%
    6. Guess none, then still guess none: 0.5625*(2/3)*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%

    So, probability of a passing grade is 75%. Not a very good test if it’s so easy to pass by random guessing ;)