• 170 Posts
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Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: December 18th, 2023

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  • Every day the US pushes us closer to nuclear war.

    In case anyone was wondering why China is rapidly building up their nuclear weapons stockpile, this is why. The US cannot stop their Cold War-era antics. They must always be superior. They must always be able to get the first say and the final say.

    China’s nuclear doctrine is very clear: don’t launch nukes at them and they won’t respond with nukes, but if you do then nothing is held back. No first use, just like India.

    NATO’s policy of allowing for first use stems from fears of being conventionally outgunned by the Soviets and now the Chinese. If anything, this should tell you where China’s military capabilities lie.







  • 2023Q4 - 5.2% GDP growth

    2024Q1 - 5.3% GDP growth (+0.7% over estimates)

    Caixin Manufacturing PMI - 51.1

    Citi GDP growth estimate 2024 - 5% (up from 4.6%)

    This is as China’s real estate sector is actively deflating and dragging down GDP growth (real estate as % of GDP estimated to drop from a high of 24% in 2018 to 19% in 2023) on the order of about 1 percentage point annually.

    I’m really not sure what you’re talking about? Labour is rotating into clean tech deployments, GDP growth numbers actively account for the deflation of the real estate bubble, manufacturing is still expanding, and estimates for GDP growth from Western analysts continue to shoot up. Meanwhile, bankrupt developers are having their projects be repurposed into public housing.

    In fact, investments are rotating rapidly from real estate into industrial capacity, which tends to have higher short-term ROI and a more significant short-term contribution to GDP.

    The biggest concern IMO is the rapid expansion of debt at the national level, which reflects the collapse of LGFVs as a viable method of supporting provincial coffers due to the decline in real estate - China’s government is becoming more centralized, and that has the potential to intervene with the (astonishingly successful) hands-off policy that’s been adopted in the past.







  • This feels self-inflicted to me. People forget that, during the Cold War, the Sino-Soviet split was very much a thing. People also forget that post-war Russia wanted nothing more than to integrate into the broader Western (European) economy, that the US’ recognition of Taiwan as the government of China only ended in the 1970s, that the US was single-handedly responsible for propping up the KMT junta for decades, that China’s interests have never left their immediate neighborhood, or that in fact Taiwan-China relations were normalizing under Ma.

    It would not be remiss for me to mention that the big Western powers are currently complaining about Georgia’s foreign agent law that would require organizations which receives significant foreign funding to register themselves… And that foreign ministers of European countries are marching in Tbilisi in protest of the law.

    Foreign influence, whether that be direct (through funding) or indirect (through ideology, propaganda) is the foundation of many large social movements. That needs to be acknowledged, and it’s perfectly fine. The notion that nations are meant to be entirely independent is one not based in reality: nobody is pretending Canada could align with Russia without getting nuked to high orbit. The world is built on realpolitik, not on lines drawn on a map.