NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
No facts, just vibes!
Lording economic theory over people won’t make them feel any different about their reality.
I completely agree, but if people are talking about specific elements of economic theory, then we should accurately talk about it. If we don’t hold ourselves to some kind of intellectual standard, then words become meaningless and incredibly easy to twist into fitting whatever agenda you like. A Republican could easily say that inflation has been caused by oppressive taxes and the obvious solution is to slash taxes, mostly for the wealthy of course, but with a mild tax break for the middle class to make it politically palatable. If you know anything about how inflation actually works, you’d know that this would simply make inflation even worse as consumers suddenly have a bunch of new cash to spend, further devaluing the dollar.
Sounds like vibes to me.
The fact is that paychecks do not go as far as they did before. That’s not a vibe, that’s the difference between making or missing bills.
You’re ignoring the facts that matter to score gotcha points. This is only going to piss people off even more than they already are lol
When discussing actual economic phenomena like inflation and recessions, yes, I think it is reasonable to actually be accurate and consistent in what we’re talking about.
Inflation is one problem. Wages not matching the cost of living is another, though related, problem. Saying that inflation has largely returned to normal is true, regardless of whatever else might also be true. Someone saying that is not saying that all economic woes have been fixed and that no one has any right to complain about anything.
I’m guessing you’re implying that Biden is saying that consumers need to stop whining because inflation has normalized. That would be pretty annoying, but he’s not actually said that. In fact, he just recently gave a speech blaming corporations:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/27/white-house-supply-chain-bidenomics-wins.html
He’s also launched several initiatives aiming to make supply chains more robust and thus prevent future shocks from impacting prices so severely.
Naw, I’m just implying that annoying people on the internet are doing it; ostensibly people who want me to vote for Biden.