I read a report that Model 3 LFPs were down to around $7k. CATL claims te be under $5k this year for a brand new pack good for about a 200 mile range. Analysts predict under $3k for that pack in 2025. This is even ignoring the potential to remanufacture an existing pack, reusing the parts of the packs that don’t degrade, and potentially reclaiming some value for recycling the cells. LFPs also have more durability, so likely to be a 15 year workable lifespan for most drivers.

This is a rapidly evolving situation, with prices going down dramatically for battery. If it lands at less than $5k for a 15 year maintenance item, then that’s even less than I spent keeping my 15 year old Acura in working order toward the end, ignoring the extra costs I had to spend on the gas compared to the EV charging. About half the gas cars I’ve owned have been a money pit for maintenance, and the other half haven’t been super cheap either. The EVs have been much lower maintenance, though admittedly the maintenance cost will be high years down the line, but I wager in aggregate it’ll be cheaper than the maintenance costs of my traditional cars have been.