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Cake day: August 2nd, 2023

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  • We’re likely to see a variant of Moore’s law when it comes to satellites. Launch costs will keep going down. Right now we have Starlink with a working satellite internet system and China with a nascent one. As the costs come down we’ll likely see more and more countries, companies, organizations and individuals will be able to deploy their own systems.

    A government would need to negotiate with every provider to get them to block signals over their country. Jamming is always hard. You could theoretically jam all communications or communications on certain frequency bands but it’s not clear how you would selectively jam satellite internet.


  • There’s a much bigger story here.
    Think about how hard it was to discover this access point. Even after it was reported and there was a known wi-fi network and the access point was known to be on a single ship, it took the Navy months to find it.

    Starlink devices are cheap and it will be nearly impossible to detect them at scale. That means that anyone can get around censors. If the user turns off wi-fi, they’ll be nearly impossible to detect. If they leave wi-fi on in an area with a lot of wi-fi networks it will also be nearly impossible to detect. A random farmer could have Starlink in their hut. A dissident (of any nation) could hide the dish behind their toilet.

    As competing networks are launched, users will be able to choose from the least restricted network for any given topic.






  • I may just be to cynical at this point but I don’t trust that at all. It’s just a pause.

    Biden has structured that block as a “Type 2” decision. It creates the illusion of standing up to Israel but it allows him to instantly and unilaterally completely reverse it as soon as public attention has shifted.

    Given history, I expect that’s exactly what will happen. Once the IDF murders enough people in Rafah, they’ll be “done”. Then they can pretend that they’ve turned over a new leaf and definitely won’t do any more genocide. Biden will congratulate them and resume all the weapons shipments, including sending the stuff that’s currently being held back.

    Short of restructuring this as a “Type 1” decision, there’s little reason to think this is anything beyond theatrics.





  • When “they used to tell us we couldnt trust Wikipedia” it wasn’t in contrast to random websites; it was in contrast to primary sources.

    That’s still true today. Wikipedia is generally less reliable than encyclopedias are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia.

    The people who tell you not to trust Wikipedia aren’t saying that you shouldn’t use it at all. They’re telling you not to stop there. That’s exactly what they told us about encylopedias too.

    If you’re researching a new topic, Wikipedia is a great place for an initial overview. If you actually care about facts, you should double check claims independently. That means following their sources until you get to primary sources. If you’ve ever done this exercise it becomes obvious why you shouldn’t trust Wikipedia. Some sources are dead links, some are not publicly accessible and many aren’t primary sources. In egregious cases the “sources” are just opinion pieces.