return2ozma@lemmy.world to Asklemmy@lemmy.ml · 20 days agoWhat's your prediction for the 2024 US election?message-squaremessage-square17fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10file-text
arrow-up11arrow-down1message-squareWhat's your prediction for the 2024 US election?return2ozma@lemmy.world to Asklemmy@lemmy.ml · 20 days agomessage-square17fedilinkfile-text
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0arrow-down1·edit-219 days agoThe current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41% https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
minus-squareZacpod@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·19 days agoWell that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
minus-squarejohannesvanderwhales@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·19 days agoBetting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0arrow-down1·18 days agoThis page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
minus-squarePandemanium@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up0·19 days agoWikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0arrow-down1·19 days agoThat’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
minus-squareAdramis@midwest.sociallinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-218 days agoMaybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean. Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0arrow-down1·18 days agoGamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.