Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
Canadian here. Mostly concern. Anybody here that thinks it’s a fun show hasn’t thought very far ahead.
We have to laugh at it to stay sane. We have no control over what the Americans do.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it’d have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
foreign policy might improve under Trump
Let’s see, Israel kills all Palestinians, Russia takes over Ukraine, then North Korea and China initiate actions against South Korea and Taiwan. You have an unusual definition of improve.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
