As deserved. The pony handouts aren’t going to happen by themselves.

Yes but these are definitely hypotheses. Fivethirtyeight has extensively covered it. In 2016 they covered it a lot, did a post-mortem on the election, and said the industry said they’ll fix it for next time, then in 2020 we got even worse polling errors.

I miss Nate from the fivethirtyeight days. It’s sad to see his model paywalled.

Random but if you’re a polling nerd this site is a godsend: https://swingstates.vercel.app/

its based on the 538 API, they also have a mastodon and bsky bot

This cycle a lot of polling has oversamples GOP. And they are using a new technique wherein they weight polls based on previous vote. Which is interesting I guess. Anyways, we’ll see what happens in a week.

Shy Trump voter is the main theory about why pollsters consistently underestimate Trump.

A good part of Trump voters are idiots who brag about it. But there’s a decent chunk who thinks he’s an arse, but are deluded into thinking that he’d be better for immigration/the economy or whatever and vote for him without telling anyone because they are embarrassed.

That’s likely a really low percentage unfortunately.

I think the estimates are only 2-4% of Trump 2016 voters voted Biden 2020.

But there definitely is something to the “shy Trump voter” theory.

I signed up and never got the verification email. It happened to basically everyone else that signed up too. Weird. Looks like the “official launch” was actually the “beginning of beta test”, weird how they marketed it as an “official launch”.

Nope. Now that maccies is gonna get way more customers who will go because they think Trump having been there is cool.

Obviously it’s fucked up how it was used in the above article.

And obviously if you’re not black you should never use it. But you’re assuming I’m not black with your comment.

Important caveat. It’s become a common word in some varieties of black-american english and black people aren’t racist for using it.

“Guys the party switch is a myth we’re the party that abolished slavery”

Sorry I didn’t mean to sound cocky. It sounds like a byproduct of slow federation. As I edited my comment almost immediately (before you replied) after posting it, to correct said number and provide a source, but it doesn’t look like it got to your end.

Also MAU stands for monthly active users and not total users. But I realise that acronym may not be widespread.

So bluesky has 5 million monthly active users while mastodon has 1 million?

Thats a fivefold difference.

True. So both have around 10 million total users. Bluesky has no monthly active user statistic. But around 1 million daily posters according to this https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

While Mastodon has ~1 million monthly active users.

So sounds like bluesky’s got a lot more activity with that many daily posters, as of now, anyways.

Even if your numbers are true. Mastodon has existed for 7 years. Bluesky for less than one.

So logically the precentage of users to active users should be much higher on Bluesky.

Also number of accounts is possibly a bad metric to judge mastodon because of the federation.

For example, I have 8 mastodon accounts (tried a couple different instances and programmed a couple rss bots to give me a news feed).

I mean thanks to bridgy you can communicate across blusky and mastodon. For example people can follow my mastodon account on bluesky.

And bluesky has gained > 8 million users in the past couple months. Mastodon has 900 odd thousand MAU.

So clearly the majority have gone to one.

More likely twitter users.

And yes it’s corporate which is less good than mastodon.

But it is add-free, has a working algorithm, is feature rich, is open-source, lets you self-host etc. Full defederation is coming soon too.

Having used both bluesky (self hosted) and mastodon. The experience is simply far better on bluesky.

Unlike lemmy vs reddit. Where (except for active user count) there isn’t really a tradeoff. Lemmy is simply far better.

cheers

If you defederate from lemmy.ml most these commenters dissapear

*“East West Philippine Sea”

can we not post right wing tabloids

More like climate change is