Fuck Assad, he could have simply chosen to not order shooting at peaceful protesters in 2011 and overseen a peaceful transition to democracy. Instead, he chose death and destruction for millions of people. He deserves everything that’s coming to him, and Syrians everywhere have every right to celebrate tonight.
The future is uncertain: this is what freedom looks like. My entire heart goes out to the Syrian people. Hopefully the maniacs leading the HTS and the SNA will not manage to smother them.
overseen a peaceful transition to democracy
Paving the way for outside actors to mess with those elections. Look at how much democracy Lebanon has with all its parties and yet it’s a giant mess. Americans complain about Russian interference in US elections but somehow don’t understand how that problem is far worse in a country with a tiny fraction of the resources that the US has. In fact, the US would be one of those outside actors trying to influence the elections, which they’ve done for many decades now in many different countries.
The future is uncertain: this is what freedom looks like. My entire heart goes out to the Syrian people. Hopefully the maniacs leading the HTS and the SNA will not manage to smother them.
This is what freedom for the most brutal looks like. The most brutal tend to be religious fanatics because they think they have God on their side and they’re willing to die for their cause. You can guarantee that whoever comes out on top will be establishing an ultraconservative theocracy and things will be worse for the Syrian people (except for those who are into that shit, maybe).
Why are the HTS maniacs again?
The are a rebranding of Al-Nusra, a split of Al-Quaeda.
This is their leader: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Mohammad_al-Julani
They are putting on a “moderate” face, it remains to be seen if they mean it.
The are a rebranding of Al-Nusra, a split of Al-Quaeda.
They’re a split of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, who was mostly (or only??? Idk) fighting the US invasion, so that doesn’t say much. Also from what I have read they’ve been keeping their promise of civil liberties in their territories. So what I want to say is: Have they done something or does anyone who’s not secular enough qualify as a maniac?
We are not talking about “not secular enough” here, we are talking about Al-Quaeda, get a grip. The leader guy had made an oath of allegiance to al-Zawahiri. Al-Nusra at times collaborated (and tbf also fought against) ISIS. They were also responsible for war crimes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nusra_Front#War_crimes
Regardless, like I also said they are putting on a moderate face and say they are different now. But minority groups in Syria are rightly feeling threatened. We’ll find out soon enough it seems.
This is not “what freedom looks like” this is “what a violent rebellion looks like”. There are good odds that the new regime will be as bad or even worse. People who overthrow a power with military force aren’t often interested in sharing that power afterwards.
The other option: overthrow the violent regime with magic.
I don’t know what to tell you - people always think there must be a “good” option, and if the current one is bad then any other option must therefore be good.
This could also be a radical regime like the Taliban that could actually be worse for most people.
What about this: the status quo under Assad with houndred of thousands tortured and murdered is bad enough to try to change it.
Well… Yeah. But do the rebels care about that? Or do they just feel that Asad was just torturing and murdering the wrong people? And do they feel that Assad was just not following the koran closely enough by allowing women to be educated?
Rebellion against oppression often leads to a different type of oppression, and given the groups these rebels have been associated with in the past it’s concerning at least.
This is untrue considering their track record after the rebranding from Al-Nusra to HTS. They’re not spawning out of thin air.
What is untrue? My concern? How can my concern be “untrue?”
The skills needed to be a revolutionary are very different from the skills needed to govern. Remember when the taliban was “kinder and softer” for a few months?
I’ll be happy if my concern is misplaced. But time will tell.
How can my concern be “untrue?”
The idea that they “could be” ignores the fact that they’ve been actively governing their territories since (and before, I guess) 2017, and they haven’t started a Taliban-style brutal regime there. I mean I guess it’s not impossible for them to suddenly change their style of governing, but what I’m trying to say that they have a track record we can use to try and predict their future behavior.
So maybe next time have a conversation rather than just telling somebody “that’s untrue”? No need to be weirdly adversarial…
That said - you raise some good points. I’m not ignoring anything though. You’re acting like my “concern” is saying “things will go bad” when it’s not.
This is for sure a byproduct of the war in Ukraine. This really shows Russia’s weakness.
This is a huge loss for Russia too. Any smaller country considering joining (or staying in) Russia’s sphere of influence for security just saw one of their peers get exiled from their country by its populous.
I believe Syria also has Russia’s only friendly port in the Mediterranean. If that base falls to rebels that would be a huge blow to Russia’s ability to project power over the region.
He’ll come back in several pieces probably.
Good riddance and hopefully Bashar al Assad is found and brought back for fair and prolonged trial (because his list of deeds is long, and he needs to testify).
I suspect he’d easily get the maximum punishment available, in any reasonably balanced justice system on the planet. A dictator on trial would also be a cautionary example for future dictators.
However, given that he’s not entirely out of resources, I think he may temporarily slip away into a country that agrees to host him.
About things in Syria: I worry that civil war isn’t over. Judging by the fighting in Manbij, one faction of the rebels (SNA) is now attemping to conquer territory from the SDF (Autonomous Administration of North-Eastern Syria). Unlike the government, the SDF however isn’t demoralized - they aren’t fighting for dictator Assad, but democracy and autonomy, and they can be expected to mount an effective resistance.
I hope that someone reminds the parties to the conflict that they need to stop and negotiate really soon now.
